The global economic outlook is showing signs of stabilisation despite ongoing uncertainty. According to the September 2024 World Economic Forum’s Chief Economists Outlook, 54% of chief economists anticipate that the global economy will remain unchanged in the coming year, while 37% expect it to weaken. The report points to some reasons for cautious optimism, such as a decrease in inflation and indications of the resilience of global trade. However, it’s important to note that this stabilisation is occurring at historically weak levels.
Despite a prolonged period of tight monetary policy and recent labour market setbacks in the US, most chief economists anticipate a gentle economic slowdown. Nearly nine out of 10 expect moderate or better growth this year and next. The upcoming election signifies a crucial turning point for US and global economic policies. Eight out of 10 respondents agreed that the election result will significantly impact economic policy worldwide. The outlook for Europe is showing signs of improvement. Chief economists are cautiously optimistic about the prospects for growth in Europe, with a 53% majority expecting moderate or better growth in 2025, compared to 29% in 2024. The outlook is either stable or positive in other regions covered in the survey. Growth prospects are positive but uncertain for the Middle East and North Africa, while Latin America, the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa appear set to exceed global growth averages.
Global inflation is continuing its downward trajectory, but deceleration is easing. The data shows strong confidence that the US has made progress in controlling inflation. The percentage of people expecting high inflation has decreased from 21% in 2024 to just 6% in 2025. Similar expectations of decreasing inflation are seen in China, where the percentage of chief economists anticipating meagre inflation has reduced from 33% in 2024 to 16% in 2025, indicating a hopeful end to the ongoing deflationary period.
Looking at commodities and the last quarter of 2024, gold, oil, and agricultural staples like cotton, coffee, and cocoa experience price swings due to central bank policies, supply imbalances, and severe weather, with more volatility expected in Q4.