According to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook, the global economy is projected to remain resilient despite significant challenges, with GDP growing 3.3%.

For 2025, market participants should consider several uncertainties impacting the economy. Escaping the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East could disrupt energy markets and negatively impact confidence and economic growth. Rising trade tensions may hinder the growth of trade. Furthermore, unexpected developments regarding growth prospects or the disinflation trajectory could lead to significant corrections in financial markets. However, growth could also exceed expectations. For instance, improvements in consumer confidence—such as a quicker-than-anticipated recovery in purchasing power—could result in increased spending. Additionally, an early resolution of major geopolitical conflicts could boost sentiment and lead to lower energy prices.

To address these challenges, the OECD Outlook emphasises the need to reduce inflation sustainably, manage rising fiscal pressures, and tackle labour shortages to alleviate structural barriers to higher-trend growth. Central banks in advanced economies, except for Japan, should continue to lower policy rates. The timing and magnitude of these reductions should be carefully assessed and remain dependent on data to ensure that underlying inflationary pressures are fully controlled.

In the latter half of 2024, ample supply and sluggish demand have kept commodity prices generally moderate. In 2025, energy prices are expected to remain moderate as oil supply exceeds demand, while reduced industrial activity in key markets is likely to exert downward pressure on metal prices. Improved crop forecasts may lead to lower food prices, although disinflation and monetary easing could boost consumption, resulting in upward pressure on agrifood prices. Geopolitical events and weather-related shocks pose significant upside risks.